281
FXUS64 KMOB 100440
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WITH A MARGINAL RISK TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
- AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL IMPACT AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS AND
NEAR SHORE WATERS AT TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT.
MESOANALYSIS UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY... WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. AN AMPLIFIED, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING GENERALLY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER WAYNE, CHOCTAW, AND CLARKE
COUNTIES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD, ALLOWING FOR SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT. SEVERAL
AREAS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (MAINLY OVER WAYNE COUNTY AND
NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY) HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 5-7 INCHES OF
RAIN FROM PREVIOUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY. IF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THESE SATURATED AREAS, WE COULD SEE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN MATERIALIZE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE, NOT TOO MUCH RAIN HAS FALLEN
TODAY, AND THEREFORE OUR CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING RAINS IS MUCH LOWER.
OVER THE COMING HOURS, WE ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO INCREASE
ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI (AND POINTS WEST) AS THE
TROUGH FINALLY BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT
MORE DIFFLUENT. LOOKING AT THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX, THERE
IS PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. CURRENT HODOGRAPHS ARE
RATHER ELONGATED, WITH THE BULK OF THEIR CURVATURE OCCURRING IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS, GIVING WAY TO 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF AROUND 150-200
M2/S2. STORM RELATIVE INFLOW WINDS ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE (AROUND 25
KNOTS), AND WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS UP TO 700MB
FOLLOWED BY A WARM LAYER ABOVE 700MB, THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MINI, LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS (MINI SPINNIES). IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT CAMS ARE SUGGESTING AN INCREASE IN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TONIGHT, WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE SRH VALUES ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE
PRIMARY THREATS FOR ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. FOR TONIGHT, THE GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE FOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA THROUGH, WITH LITTLE TO NO STORMS ANTICIPATED FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. STORMS, ALONG WITH THE WIND/TORNADO THREAT
WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST OF I-65 BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WITH VERY LIMITED FORCING (HEIGHT FALLS
ONLY AROUND 20 METERS AT BEST), EXPECTING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO BE
RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME. WE DRY OUT BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES,
EXCEPT ONLY FROM ABOUT 50-55 DEGREES ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS, WITH READINGS IN THE MID 30S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT STILL LOOKS ON TRACK TO
PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, MAINLY ACROSS LOCATIONS EAST OF
I-65 AND NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY RANGE IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ON THURSDAY BEHIND THIS REINFORCING COLD
AIRMASS. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE MAY OCCUR OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20 TO
AROUND 32 DEGREES (LOWS CLOSER TO THE MID 30S ALONG THE BEACHES).
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAY TREND SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE REGION.
BEACH FORECAST: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
EVENING, WITH CEILINGS HOLDING AT MVFR AT KMOB AS OF 04Z. CEILINGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LIFR OVER THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PATCHY FOG ALSO
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO MVFR TO IFR (PERHAPS VERY LOCALLY TO LIFR)
THRESHOLDS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT
FOR LOCALIZED IFR CEILINGS HOLDING NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER A FEW AREA BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND ADJACENT NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS
OF FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE AFFECTED MARINE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
STARTING AT 9 PM SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT.
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO EXPIRE FOR ALL BAYS
AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND AT NOON SUNDAY, AND FOR THE GULF WATERS
AT 9 AM MONDAY AS THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 66 74 44 / 60 70 90 10
PENSACOLA 74 67 74 49 / 20 40 80 30
DESTIN 72 65 73 50 / 10 20 70 50
EVERGREEN 78 65 76 43 / 50 60 90 20
WAYNESBORO 75 63 71 41 / 90 90 90 10
CAMDEN 75 63 73 41 / 70 90 90 10
CRESTVIEW 78 65 77 46 / 20 30 80 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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