046
FXUS64 KMOB 121942
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
142 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MARINE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WILL BECOME
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MIDWEEK AS A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
TONIGHT WILL MOVE EASTERLY TO SOUTHWEST CANADA BY MIDWEEK, SENDING
AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY
TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES OUR REGION AND DEEPENS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE OVER FAR INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH AN UPPER
ZONAL FLOW RETURNING OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER PATTERN THEN TAKES ANOTHER INTERESTING TURN AS WINDS
ALOFT SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER
IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WITH A 150 KNOT UPPER JET DIVING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AND A 140 KNOT UPPER JET EXTENDING UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
BY NOON SUNDAY. THIS TIME AROUND, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
WILL BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AGAIN SENDING AN ASSOCIATED STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON FRIDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
FOLLOW, DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IT IS THIS
CLIPPER THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE GFS, BUT THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF ON A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE
EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. I SAY MOSTLY DRY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM, SINCE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW FLURRIES
INTERIOR AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WE
WILL BE MONITORING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BEFORE WE ENTER INTO THE ARCTIC AIRMASS,
WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S INLAND,
WITH UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD FALL
INTO THE 20S. THESE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 12 TO 17
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS TIME, APPARENT TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE MIDDLE TO TO UPPER 20S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BRIEFLY BECOMING MODERATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
GOING INTO THURSDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, UNDER NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY, AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
DECREASE GOING INTO TUESDAY. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL THEN SHIFT WESTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WESTERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT,
FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MARINERS
OPERATING SMALL CRAFT ON THE GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 32 59 41 62 / 0 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 36 58 45 61 / 0 0 20 10
DESTIN 40 59 47 61 / 0 0 20 10
EVERGREEN 29 60 38 61 / 0 0 20 10
WAYNESBORO 29 58 39 60 / 0 0 20 10
CAMDEN 28 57 39 58 / 0 0 20 20
CRESTVIEW 28 61 37 61 / 0 0 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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