009
FXUS64 KMOB 270521
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1121 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WIND CHILLS VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA
FOR THE WEEKEND. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
WILL ACCOMPANY IT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD FOR
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
IT REMAINS QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILS. MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS INLAND AND LOWER 20'S
NEAR THE COAST AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH HIGHS TODAY MANAGING TO WARM
A BIT MORE INTO THE UPPER 40'S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. WE MODERATE
SOMEWHAT THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS OVERNIGHT LOWS INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH NIGHT, EVENTUALLY REACHING LOWER TO MIDDLE 30'S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS AREN'T QUITE AS ENTHUSED
ABOUT WARMING, BUT WE SHOULD MANAGE SOME MIDDLE TO MAYBE UPPER
50'S MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE BOTTOM DROPS OUT AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER,
POTENTIALLY MORE POWERFUL ARCTIC FRONT AND AIRMASS DIVES IN ACROSS
THE REGION. WHILE FORECAST HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30'S, ITS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA STAYS BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY SATURDAY BASED ON SOME OF
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD FALLING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
MORNING, AND LIKELY STRUGGLING TO IMPROVE MUCH DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY ONLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20'S. THE DAY SUNDAY WILL
TRY TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT AS HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30'S AND
LOWER 40'S.
SOME PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO THE FRONT RACING
THROUGH, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION. MOST
FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THIS SYSTEM MOVING EAST
AND ULTIMATELY RIDING UP THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AS A MILLER
A TYPE SYSTEM, KEEPING US DRY AFTER TEMPERATURES PLUMMET BELOW
FREEZING. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS TRYING TO KEEP SOME OVERLAP OF PRECIP WITH THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, BUT AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS UNLIKELY WE WILL HAVE ANY
ISSUES FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION. AS MENTIONED LAST NIGHT, WE'LL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS, BUT EXPECTATION IS FOR DRY
WEATHER TO PREVAIL AS THE COLD WEATHER ARRIVES. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5
KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK.
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 42 21 49 29 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 43 24 48 32 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 46 26 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 41 18 48 26 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 38 16 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 37 16 44 24 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 44 20 49 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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