336
FXUS64 KMOB 302017
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
217 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
- AN ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND
LINGERS THROUGH SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS ARE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT, WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TO GALE
FORCE ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER LEVELS
IN OUR BAYS AND SOUNDS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST US. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE OVER 5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH IS AN
INCREDIBLY RARE FEAT. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED ARCTIC COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE ARCTIC FRONT AND A POWERFUL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS. WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY GUST TO AS HIGH
AS 30-35 MPH. THIS WILL HELP TO USHER IN SOME VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS CRASHING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
WEST OF I-65 AND MID TO UPPER 20S FOR AREAS EAST. FACTORING IN THE
WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MANY INTERIOR AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND LOWER TEENS FOR COASTAL
COUNTIES.
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
EVEN FURTHER AS A NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE COLD,
SINKING AIRMASS SHOULD HELP TO MIX DOWN GUSTIER WINDS FROM THIS JET
TO THE SURFACE, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO FREQUENTLY GUST TO AS
HIGH AS 40-45 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM THROUGH 9 PM SATURDAY FOR OUR FLORIDA AND ALABAMA
COUNTIES. THESE STRONG, COLD WINDS WILL ALSO PREVENT US FROM WARMING
MUCH. IN FACT, SEVERAL INTERIOR COUNTIES ON SATURDAY MAY NOT GET
ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 30S ALONG THE COAST. FACTORING IN THE GUSTY WINDS, WIND CHILLS
DURING THE DAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER
20S!
OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON COMES SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS
PLUMMET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH THESE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES, WE COULD
ACTUALLY GET PRETTY CLOSE TO RECORDS SUNDAY MORNING (FEB 1ST RECORD
LOWS - KMOB: 17 KPNS: 20). WINDS SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH MUCH LOWER
THAN SATURDAY) WILL STILL REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED, HELPING TO BRING
SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS TO THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM THIS UPCOMING COLD
WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY START TO MODERATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL
WARM INTO MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY,
HELPING TO BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD UPPER-END MVFR CEILINGS THIS
EVENING ACCOMPANYING A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY,
INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 32 KNOTS MID
EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL LOCAL
MARINE ZONES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE MAY BUILD
TO AS HIGH AS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT WATER IN MOBILE
BAY OUT OF THE BAY, CREATING MUCH LOWER THAN USUAL WATER LEVELS IN
SHIPPING CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE MID 20S, ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS, COULD
LEAD TO A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY/MINOR ICING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 24 34 18 44 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 27 36 21 44 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 27 38 22 44 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 20 32 16 42 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 18 31 16 43 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 18 31 16 40 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 23 35 16 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>264.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR FLZ201-203-205.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST
SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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