225
FXUS64 KMOB 010446
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS
NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. LOW WATER LEVELS ACROSS MOST BAYS
AND SOUNDS, ESPECIALLY MOBILE BAY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY DUE
TO WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING MOSTLY INTO THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE
LOWER 20S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RATHER LARGE UPPER TROF WHICH SPANS
BOTH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF MOVES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES SUBSTANTIALLY
BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THIS BRINGS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS TRENDING TO THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND UPPER TROF, A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN THE REMAINING NIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, AND SIMILAR VALUES FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS
FOR THURSDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
BECOME A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 20 46 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 22 45 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 23 45 33 54 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 17 43 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 18 44 23 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 17 40 22 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 17 45 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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