344
FXUS64 KMOB 011131
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
531 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS COME TO AN END THIS MORNING AS
NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH. LOW WATER LEVELS ACROSS MOST BAYS AND
SOUNDS, ESPECIALLY MOBILE BAY, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SUNDAY DUE
TO WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING MOSTLY INTO THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS OVER INTERIOR AREAS AND THE
LOWER 20S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S.
GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A RATHER LARGE UPPER TROF WHICH SPANS
BOTH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF MOVES OFF INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROF MEANWHILE ADVANCING
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES SUBSTANTIALLY
BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH ALLOWS FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
THIS BRINGS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOWS TRENDING TO THE MID
30S TO LOWER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT, AND HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND UPPER TROF, A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN
RETURNS TO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THEN DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED, BUT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THEN THE REMAINING NIGHTS WILL BE IN
THE 30S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, AND
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, AND SIMILAR VALUES FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS
FOR THURSDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING 20 KNOTS THIS
MORNING RELAX LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
TONIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
BECOME A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THEN SWITCH
TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 46 26 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 45 29 56 43 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 45 33 54 45 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 43 22 57 33 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 44 23 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 40 22 55 35 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 22 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>636-
650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ670-675.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page