094
FXUS64 KMOB 130518
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF MAY CAUSE ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN TROUBLE SPOTS
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
ALL EYES ARE ON OUR NEXT IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM THIS COMING
WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
GUSTY WINDS, HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. AN UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES ALLOWING FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP ACROSS THE AREA AS STRONG UPPER
DIFLUENCE OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL MASS RESPONSE BRINGING WARM, MOIST AIR NORTHWARD OFF
THE GULF INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A HIGHLY FORCED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS TENDED TO
EVER SO SLIGHTLY SLOW THINGS DOWN, BRINGING THE LINE THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS OPPOSED TO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. IF THIS
WERE TO REMAIN THE CASE, THEN A MORE ROBUST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE TABLE AS MORE MOISTURE IS ABLE TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE HEATING HELPING TO BUILD
IN ADEQUATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE STORMS. AMPLE
WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING
200 TO 300+ M2/S2 SRH AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50
TO 60 KNOTS. WHILE THE STORM MODE IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LINEAR, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES
WITHIN THE LINE ITSELF IN ADDITION TO STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PROBABLY
RESIDE FURTHER EAST INTO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL AL INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE, WHERE THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR EXISTS.
THERE'S STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE GUIDANCE AND ITS ENTIRELY
POSSIBLE THIS SPEEDS BACK UP, BUT TRENDS THE PAST 24 HOURS
HAVE SLOWED THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND LIKEWISE
THE EVENTUAL LINE OF STORMS. ANY FURTHER SLOWING OF THE LINE OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE OF STORMS, OWING TO A
STRONG 40 TO 50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THE MOMENT, I
WON'T BE SURPRISED IF WE GET CLOSE IN SPOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 35MPH RANGE NEARER THE COAST. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS SURF HEIGHTS RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO THE 5 TO 9 FOOT RANGE ALONG
COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM, WE DON'T REALLY COOL OFF MUCH AND MAINTAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS EVEN APPROACHING
RECORD HIGH TERRITORY ONCE AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY BECOMES A MODERATE RISK BY FRIDAY AND A HIGH
RISK FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR MOBILE BAY AND NEAR COAST
DROPPING VISBYS TO LIFR AT TIMES. AM EXPECTING ANY FOG PRESENT
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT SUNRISE TO QUICKLY MIX OUT IN THE MORNING
HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 5
KNOTS DURING THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOP TO LIGHT
SOON AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATE FRIDAY, BECOMING MODERATE
SATURDAY MORNING AND STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH IF CONFIDENCE ON STRONGER WIND
GUSTS INCREASES.A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GRADUALLY
WANING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 49 74 51 73 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 51 71 52 68 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 51 69 52 67 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 42 73 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 45 72 49 75 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 40 70 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 44 75 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
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