228
FXUS64 KMOB 131743
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1143 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF MAY CAUSE ISSUES, PARTICULARLY IN TROUBLE SPOTS
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES AND UP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS BOUNDARY IS
HELPING TO SEPARATE DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S TO ITS NORTH FROM
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 TO ITS SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
PUSHING OFFSHORE AND MOVING BACK ONSHORE. THE ONLY CHALLENGE THIS
BOUNDARY PRESENTS WOULD BE IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, WHERE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH
SOME SITES REPORTING VISIBILITIES BELOW A 1/4 MILE, A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES. FOG SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY
OR BEFORE 7AM AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. OTHERWISE, WE WILL REMAIN
MILD AND DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGHS TODAY
AND TOMORROW IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S NORTHEAST TO THE MID 50S SOUTHWEST.
THE PATTERN QUICKLY BEGINS TO CHANGE BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BARRELS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN US. PRIOR TO THIS TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
DIFFLUENT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE GULF, LEADING TO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY TIME PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL US AND WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AS IT
DEVELOPS, IT WILL HELP TO LIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY
BOUNDARY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE WARM
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND CONFLUENCE BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.
AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE AREA, A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR
FLUCTUATIONS IN TIMING STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WE GET
CLOSER. GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT PLENTY OF SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE (0-6KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KNOTS), ALONG WITH LARGE,
CURVED HODOGRAPHS YIELDING 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 250-350 M2/S2.
ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE ARE QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER, THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO LIE WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. RATHER POOR LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH THE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE, SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. BY DAYBREAK, WE COULD
SEE A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY VALUES TO RISE
AS DIURNAL HEATING COMMENCES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE OF
STORMS. HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
THIS LINE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. A FASTER LINE WOULD LEAD TO
LESS HEATING (LOWER INSTABILITY VALUES) WHEREAS A SLOWER LINE
WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES. IF THE HIGHER INSTABILITY
SOLUTION PANS OUT, THEN STORMS WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED TORNADOES.
AFTER THE MAIN LINE PASSES, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
PUSHES OVERHEAD AND MOISTURE WRAPS AROUND THESE FEATURES. WHAT'S
INTERESTING IS THAT SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY
VALUES WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS, LIKELY DUE
TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL RESPONSE IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES/DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST SHEAR AND FORCING WILL
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED OFF TO OUR EAST, IF STORMS DO MANAGE TO
REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BEING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY DUE TO THE LOW
CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. WIND GUSTS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 25-35 MPH,
HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS, WITH SURF HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 5-8
FEET BY SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS STARTING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK REMAIN VERY WARM, WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS BY MIDWEEK COULD SEE
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS AROUND 60. WITH THESE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, DENSE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE EACH NIGHT NEXT WEEK.
/96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COASTAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT. THIS
PATCHY FOG COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR LEVELS, ALONG WITH
MVFR CEILINGS, MAINLY FROM 14/09Z UNTIL 14/14Z. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AND STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7-10 FEET. IF CONFIDENCE IN
GALE FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN GALE WATCHES MAY
BECOME NEEDED FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GRADUALLY WANING TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 51 73 59 / 0 0 10 90
PENSACOLA 71 52 68 60 / 0 0 10 80
DESTIN 69 52 67 60 / 0 0 0 70
EVERGREEN 73 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 80
WAYNESBORO 72 49 75 58 / 0 0 10 90
CAMDEN 70 46 73 57 / 0 0 0 80
CRESTVIEW 75 45 73 55 / 0 0 0 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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