257
FXUS64 KMOB 140533
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1133 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- A STRONG SYSTEM COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF HEIGHTS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MULTIPLE HAZARDS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE MARINE FOG IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A LINE OF STORMS PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION TO THE
THUNDERSTORM HAZARD, STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH WILL AFFECT
LAND AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG WINDS AND WIND
GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR OFFSHORE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY 35 KNOTS IN THE GULF
WATERS, FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LAST BUT
NOT LEAST, HIGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL IMPACT COASTAL
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
WELL THAT WAS A MOUTHFUL, NOW LETS DIVE INTO THE DETAILS OF EACH
HAZARD AND HOW THE FORECAST WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WE WILL
STILL BE SITTING ON THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS BEGINNING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST MOISTURE RETURN TO BEGIN WITH PORTIONS
OF MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND POTENTIALLY HAVING ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND DECOUPLING FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ALLOW
FOR DENSE MARINE FOG TO SETTLE IN. THE BEST TIMING FOR THIS WILL
EXIST FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6AM SATURDAY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY, THE EXPECTATION
IS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BEGIN WORKING THEIR WAY
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST SPREADING AMPLE UPPER DIFLUENCE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT,
EVENTUALLY BEING FOLLOWED UP WITH A STRONGLY FORCED QLCS ENTERING
OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WHILE
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW FAST THIS PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE AREA AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE, MOST
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AROUND 500 TO 1,000J/KG OF
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THIS, HIGHEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE LINE
ENTERING OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AT THE EARLIEST AROUND
5 OR 6AM, AND THE LATEST AROUND 8AM. THIS LINE WILL BE QUICK TO
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA, REACHING ALABAMA COUNTIES BETWEEN 7AM
AND 9AM AND THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 9AM AND 11AM, ULTIMATELY
EXITING THE AREA SOMETIME LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AMPLE
WIND SHEAR WITH LARGE, CURVED HODOGRAPHS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
A LOW END TORNADO THREAT WITH THE LINE. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL
LIKELY BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60MPH OWING TO A
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CHARACTERIZED BY 850MB WINDS APPROACHING
50 TO 60 KNOTS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON ATTENTION TURNS TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND SURFACE LOW AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ENOUGH TIME WILL
LIKELY PASS BETWEEN THE MORNING QLCS AND THESE FEATURES TO ALLOW
FOR INSTABILITY TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN AND WIND SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 30 TO 40 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD IN THE
WAKE OF THE QLCS, BUT AT LEAST MODEST HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND SR
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF MINI
SPINNY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE ROBUST
AFTERNOON POTENTIAL COULD BE REALIZED IF SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE ON AIRMASS RECOVERY IS REALIZED WHERE NEARLY
1,500J/KG OF SBCAPE BUILDS IN. A SMALL HAIL THREAT ALSO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT IN THE DEEPEST STORMS. TIMING FOR THE AFTERNOON ROUND IS
GENERALLY ANTICIPATED FROM ROUGHLY 3PM TO 7PM, QUICKLY WANING
AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMBINED WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE TRANSFER OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. WHILE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS ARE NOT
EXPLICITLY FORECAST RIGHT NOW, FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35MPH,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40MPH, ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL OCCUR NEARER
THE COAST WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
OCCUR, AND IF ANY ADJUSTMENTS UPWARDS IN ANTICIPATED WIND GUSTS
OCCUR A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES FOR
COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. PEAK WIND
GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR FROM AROUND 6AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 3PM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE STORMS AND STRONG NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS,
COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND
WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF. THE PERIOD FOR STRONG RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM EARLY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS PERIOD 6PM SATURDAY THROUGH 6PM MONDAY. HIGH SURF
HEIGHTS IN THE 4 TO 7 FOOT RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH SOME 8
FOOT SURF HEIGHTS POSSIBLE, ALONG COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. GIVEN THIS, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS FROM 3AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6AM MONDAY
MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM, WE RETURN TO CALMER AND WARMER WEATHER
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
POTENTIALLY NEARING RECORD HIGHS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM A HIGH RISK ON MONDAY
TO A MODERATE RISK MONDAY NIGHT AND A LOW RISK TUESDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. EXCEPTION
IS LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BRINGING DROPS IN VISBYS TO IFR LEVELS. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10-15 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. /16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL TURN ONSHORE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS INCREASE TO MODERATE ON SATURDAY AND STRONG
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 7-10 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FROM 3AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6AM
MONDAY MORNING. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT, GRADUALLY
WANING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DENSE MARINE FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI
SOUND TONIGHT WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 12AM TO
6AM SATURDAY MORNING. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 51 72 59 73 / 0 0 90 90
PENSACOLA 52 67 59 70 / 0 0 80 100
DESTIN 52 66 58 70 / 0 0 70 100
EVERGREEN 45 74 54 73 / 0 0 80 100
WAYNESBORO 50 74 58 70 / 10 10 90 80
CAMDEN 47 72 55 70 / 0 0 80 100
CRESTVIEW 45 73 53 73 / 0 0 70 100
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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