942
FXUS64 KMOB 150149
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
749 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 748 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3AM AND 10AM
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARILY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 5 TO 7 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 748 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A SQUALL LINE HAS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST TEXAS IN
RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING EAST OVER CENTRAL
TX. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR QUICK EASTERN PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST TIMING INDICATES THAT THE
SQUALL LINE WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY 3AM, BE NEAR OR
JUST EAST OF I-65 BY 6AM, AND LIKELY BE EAST OF THE AREA BY
9-10AM. SHEAR WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A 50-60 KT LOW
LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO YIELD 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND 0-1KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. INSTABILITY WILL
BE THE MAIN QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE FAST NATURE OF THE RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
MLCAPES COULD RISE TO 500-750 J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION, 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST
TO BE 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS ARE ALWAYS
TRICKY THOUGH AS THERE ARE ALWAYS QUESTION MARKS ON IF THE SHEAR
WILL BE TOO STRONG. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORCING OF THE POTENT UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY, THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED TORNADO ALONG THE
SQUALL LINE. SPC RECENTLY UPGRADED SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH A MARGINAL RISK CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST WAS ALSO UPDATED A LITTLE WHILE AGO TO ACCOUNT FOR
AN EARLIER ARRIVAL OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS THIS EVENING. WE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE INCREASING WIND GUSTS SOME OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE SQUALL LINE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH LIKELY. 34/JFB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WE TRANSITION TO PERIOD OF WET WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER RIDGE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND A POTENT
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS INCREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN
SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO QUICKLY ADVECT
BACK INTO THE LOCAL AREA WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.5 INCHES.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
REGION BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS REACHING ALABAMA BY NOON
SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING NEUTRAL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST WHILE A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ARLATEX REGION THIS EVENING MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA ON SUNDAY. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING,
HELPING TO INCREASE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AREA-
WIDE ALONG WITH BREEZY SURFACE WINDS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
OUTLOOKED BY SPC. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES STILL LOOK RATHER
LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500-1000
J/KG. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET (850MB) UP TO AROUND
60 KNOTS FROM 3 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS NOT
CHANGED THE TIMING WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE MOVING
THROUGH OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BETWEEN 3-5 AM, SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA BETWEEN 5-7 AM, AND THE I-65 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 7-9 AM. THE
LINE SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY 10 AM. CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH (PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE LINE OF STORMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HODOGRAPHS ARE
LARGE AND CURVED WITH 0-1KM SRH VALUES OF 250-400 M2/S2, AND IF
THIS LINE REMAINS SURFACE BASED, A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT IS
POSSIBLE. AFTER THE MAIN LINE PASSES, WE WILL SEE A LULL IN
ACTIVITY AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THERE COULD BE
A FEW EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE HIGHWAY-84 CORRIDOR AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PUSHES
THROUGH.
BEACH FORECAST: A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM
TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY FOR SURF HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 5-7
FEET. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ALSO IN EFFECT STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
RETURNING BACK TO A LOW RISK BY TUESDAY. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME. BY THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LOW-END MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR AS A
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING
AS EARLY AS 09Z-10Z OVER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND
EXITING OUR LOCAL AREA BY 16Z-17Z. EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY TO IFR OR LOWER AS THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE LINE OF
STORMS. WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, COULD GUST AS
HIGH AS 20-30 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF AROUND 40-45 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP, GENERALLY AROUND THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE TO STRONG AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED. THIS MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL DECREASE TO A LIGHT
TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. /22
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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