504
FXUS64 KMOB 150624
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1224 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2AM AND 8AM THIS
MORNING. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
BRIEF TORNADO.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WILL IMPACT COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA
AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AS OF MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE IS MOVING FASTER
THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATED. THEREFORE, WE NOW EXPECT IT TO
ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY 2AM, APPROACH THE I-65
CORRIDOR BY 4AM, AND EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA BY NO LATER THAN
8AM. THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES. AS IT CONTINUES EAST, SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG
AS A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO
YIELD 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT AND 0-1KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2.
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE FAST NATURE
OF THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
INDICATES MLCAPES SHOULD RISE TO 500-750 J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION, 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST
TO BE 100-150 J/KG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY
THOUGH AS THERE ARE ALWAYS QUESTION MARKS ON IF THE SHEAR WILL BE
TOO STRONG GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORCING OF THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN
EMBEDDED TORNADO ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES THROUGH 5AM.
WE MAY HAVE TO LOCALLY EXTEND THIS AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION LATER AS WE SEE HOW THE LINE PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR
AREA.
WE WILL SEE A LULL IN STORM COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING LINE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND ZONES, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER WE GET PAST THIS STORM SYSTEM, THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
LOW END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA AS A
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM'S SPEED HAS PROVEN TO BE FASTER
THAN GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED, SO AM EXPECTING THE LOWER CIGS/VISBYS
TO REACH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 09Z, AND OUT OF
THE AREA BY 13Z. HAVE KEPT THE LLWS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AS
THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT INTO
MORNING TIME FRAME.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY WANING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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