800
FXUS64 KMOB 151259
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
- HIGH SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET WILL IMPACT COASTAL
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
THE LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT
EAST OF OUR AREA AROUND MID-MORNING. ANOTHER BOUT OF LIKELY TO
DEFINITE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI REGION, WILL ENTER INTO OUR INTERIOR AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD MAINLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES
AT 500MB AROUND -16C, SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO COULD SLIP SOUTH TOWARD
THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT NO STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL THEN EXIT EAST OF THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AS OF MIDNIGHT. THIS LINE IS
MOVING FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATED. THEREFORE, WE
NOW EXPECT IT TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BY 2AM,
APPROACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY 4AM, AND EXIT EASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA BY NO LATER THAN 8AM. THIS LINE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES. AS IT
CONTINUES EAST, SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AS A 50-60 KT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO YIELD 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF
35-45 KT AND 0-1KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2. INSTABILITY WILL BE THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK DUE TO THE FAST NATURE OF THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES MLCAPES
SHOULD RISE TO 500-750 J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LOCATED
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN ADDITION, 0-3KM CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE
100-150 J/KG ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THESE HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE EVENTS ARE ALWAYS TRICKY
THOUGH AS THERE ARE ALWAYS QUESTION MARKS ON IF THE SHEAR WILL BE
TOO STRONG GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE FORCING OF THE POTENT UPPER TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE
OF AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN
EMBEDDED TORNADO ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES THROUGH 5AM.
WE MAY HAVE TO LOCALLY EXTEND THIS AN HOUR OR TWO, BUT WILL MAKE
THAT DECISION LATER AS WE SEE HOW THE LINE PROGRESSES THROUGH OUR
AREA.
WE WILL SEE A LULL IN STORM COVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING LINE. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO DEVELOP MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER
INLAND ZONES, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH THESE STORMS GIVEN THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING, GUSTING TO 30-35 MPH AT TIMES. THESE STRONG GUSTS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON.
AFTER WE GET PAST THIS STORM SYSTEM, THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS
FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF RAIN. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A WEAKLY ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING LOCAL DROPS IN
CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO IFR. THERE IS STILL STRONGER WINDS ALONG
AND NEAR THE COAST, WARRANTING A WIND SHEAR ADDON FOR AREA TAF
SITES UNTIL 13-14Z THIS MORNING, AND IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY 16Z. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. A
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY WANING TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 53 71 52 / 30 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 71 55 69 54 / 60 10 0 0
DESTIN 70 54 69 54 / 70 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 73 49 72 46 / 60 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 69 50 70 48 / 70 10 0 0
CAMDEN 69 50 68 48 / 90 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 74 51 72 47 / 80 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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