685
FXUS64 KMOB 160545
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK.
- WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRY WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN
HOWEVER, AS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL WSW FLOW. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR
THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALL RESULTS IN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PERIOD THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING OVER THE MARINE AREA. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY MID MONDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. 34/JFB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ631-632-
650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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