497
FXUS64 KMOB 161736
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK.
- WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
DRY WEATHER AND INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY
THIS WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGING WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY MID TO LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND BECOME WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ENTER BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN HOWEVER,
AS ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WILL BE HINDERED BY THE UPPER LEVEL
WSW FLOW. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND FOR THE FRONT TO
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS ALL RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT PERIOD THAT WILL SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY THE LATE IN
THE WEEK UNDER A PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THIS PATTERN
SUGGESTS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT, INCLUDING OVER THE MARINE AREA. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TO
BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING, WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SE MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL ALABAMA, AND FAR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.
34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 51 72 59 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 69 54 69 60 / 0 0 0 20
DESTIN 68 54 67 58 / 0 0 0 20
EVERGREEN 71 44 74 53 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 69 48 73 56 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 67 46 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 72 45 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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