358
FXUS64 KMOB 161802
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1202 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES BY MIDWEEK.
- WE WILL MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED MOISTURE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE LOCATED MOSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DAMPENS
AND MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROF ADVANCES INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROF EVENTUALLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY TUESDAY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT
AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN MODEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INITIALLY
NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THEN MOVES THROUGH. RAIN
CHANCES TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY FOR THE
MOST PART REMAINS LIMITED, MLCAPE VALUES LOOK TO INCREASE TO
500-1000 J/KG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. WITH AN 850 MB JET NEAR 30-35 KNOTS,
SUFFICIENT SHEAR LOOKS TO BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT A CONCERN FOR
STRONG STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
THE ALABAMA BEACHES AND THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES. A LOW RISK IS OTHERWISE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY
TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S, VALUES WHICH ARE 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SIMILARLY WARM HIGHS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, THEN COOLER
AIR FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE MILD
FOR THE MOST PART, THOUGH THEN DROP TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TO
BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL RETURN BY LATE EVENING, WITH A MIX OF IFR/MVFR
VISIBILITIES ACROSS SE MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL ALABAMA, AND FAR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT DUE TO PATCHY FOG. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT THEN BECOMES A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. AN ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST, A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 51 72 59 77 / 0 0 20 20
PENSACOLA 54 68 60 74 / 0 0 20 30
DESTIN 54 67 58 71 / 0 0 10 30
EVERGREEN 45 74 53 77 / 0 0 10 20
WAYNESBORO 49 73 56 78 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN 46 73 55 77 / 0 0 10 10
CRESTVIEW 46 72 53 76 / 0 0 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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