353
FXUS64 KMOB 170455
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
- WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE LEVELS MID TO LATE WEEK.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED LOWER THAN FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE HAVE REFLECTED THESE TRENDS IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF
TRENDS INDICATE THE FOG WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE.
AS WE LOOK TOWARD THE WEEK AHEAD, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TO MID WEEK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED THE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS
IN TEMPERATURES RISING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 80S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY, BUT WILL SLOW DOWN DUE IT BECOMING PARALLEL WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT WILL TAKE A MORE SIGNIFICANT AND
AMPLIFIED TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES
THIS WEEKEND TO FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THERE
ARE STILL UNCERTAINTIES IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER,
THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SATURDAY LIKELY TO BE THE DAY WITH
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES. IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THERE WILL BE
ANY CONCERN FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AS THAT WILL HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MID TO LATE WEEK AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IN
THIS PATTERN, MARINE FOG MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH BAY AND
SOUND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
LIGHT GROUND FOG HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AS THE EARLIER CLOUD DECK
HAS CLEARED THIS EVENING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CONFIDENCE
IN IFR TO LIFR VISBYS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IS
INCREASING AND SOME PATCHY INSTANCES OF VLIFR VISBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY INLAND AS FOG SLOWLY DEVELOPS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
VLIFR TO LIFR VISBYS AND CEILINGS WILL BE JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE STEADILY MIXING BACK TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY VFR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MARINE FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER
NEARSHORE WATERS. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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