775
FXUS64 KMOB 180610
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1210 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- FOG WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF DENSE MARINE FOG BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO UPPER LEVEL
WSW TO SW FLOW BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL LIKELY STALL
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DESPITE THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO RESPOND DUE TO A
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL FORCING. NBM RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
TOO AGRESSIVE FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY, SO WE HAVE REMOVED RAIN
CHANCES FOR TODAY AND WILL KEEP THEM JUST IN THE 20-40% RANGE ON
THURSDAY. A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY AND QUICKLY MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL FINALLY RESULT IN THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES FOR OUR AREA WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY IMMEDIATLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY APPEAR TO
BE MARGINAL AND NOT SUGGESTIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH MANY LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 80 DEGREES FOR HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. ENJOY THE WARMTH WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE WINTER WILL BE
GREETING US ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE
30S BY MONDAY MORNING.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN
TO AREA BEACHES THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
IT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGING CEILING FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOST
AREAS HAVE REMAINED AT VFR LEVELS THIS EVENING, BUT THERE HAVE
BEEN POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. OVERALL WE EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MVFR CEILING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND CANNOT RULE OUT
PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN IFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING PREVALENT. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HELP
CEILINGS RETURN TO VFR LEVELS BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER,
PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE. 34/JFB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
QUICKLY BUILDING OVER THE GULF WATERS.
THE PROBABILITY OF DENSE MARINE FOG IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY BY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, AS INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOLER BAYS AND SOUNDS. FOR NOW,
WE HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, IF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE, THEN A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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