916
FXUS64 KMOB 051826
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1226 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN RETURNS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. LOW STRATUS AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. FOG WILL REMAIN THE
BIGGEST HEADACHE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH EACH NIGHT
LIKELY SEEING AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, PARTICULARLY NEARER
THE COAST. THE BIGGEST INHIBITOR FOR FOG IS GOING TO BE STRONGER
WINDS NEAR AND JUST ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER AROUND 15 TO 25
KNOTS. WHERE WINDS ARE WEAKER, FOG WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME
SETTLING IN. STRONGER WINDS WILL SUPPORT A LOW STRATUS DECK. THE
BEST ODDS OF SEEING FOG AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY GOING TO
BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS WHERE
IT WILL BE EASIER FOR LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO COOL AND A
STRONGER INVERSION TO SET UP TO COUNTERACT THE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE. WITH THAT SAID, TONIGHTS WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE STRONGEST OF THE PAST FEW NIGHTS, AND GIVEN THAT THE PLAN IS
TO HOLD OFF ON ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
WE WILL BE ABLE TO RE-ASSESS THIS LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
THERE WILL BE BEACH HAZARDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY INCREASES TO A HIGH RISK FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC HIGH-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. IT ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIP
CURRENT RISK REMAINING BORDERLINE MODERATE TO HIGH ON SUNDAY. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE OCCURRENCE OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS INTO
SUNDAY, THE CURRENT HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY HAVE TO BE
EXTENDED IN TIME INTO SUNDAY.
DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, AS WE CONTINUE OUR WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. AS WE
HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS WILL EXIST AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION IMPARTING MODEST UPPER DIFLUENCE OVER OUR AREA HELPING TO
FORCE A LINE OF STORMS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THERE REMAINS SOME VARIANCE ON HOW THE GUIDANCE IS
HANDLING THIS FEATURE, BUT WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR THE
ANTICIPATION IS FOR THIS LINE TO LOSE ORGANIZATION OVER TIME AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORMS, BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION FOR
ANYTHING SEVERE IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. A SIMILAR SETUP EXISTS
FOR SUNDAY, PERHAPS WITH EVER SO SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING, BUT
ANTICIPATION IS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP, BEST CHANCES WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
WE SEE UPPER RIDGING BECOME MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY
GIVING WAY TO DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. BEYOND THIS,
THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
WILL DRIVE OUR WEATHER MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
HOWEVER TIMING ON THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THAT LOW MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR SOME
LOW END SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WITH THAT IF IT TRANSITS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY AS SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AND ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO GO WITH THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A PESKY STRATUS DECK HAS RESULTED IN MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ALONG
THE COAST, WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
ONCE AGAIN, IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE COAST
AFTER DARK INTO THE ENTIRE AREA. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS BY LATE
MORNING. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
MID-TO-LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. JGC/SAM
MARINE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY
DENSE, REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 66 79 65 / 0 10 50 10
PENSACOLA 76 66 77 66 / 10 10 20 0
DESTIN 74 64 75 64 / 10 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 84 63 83 62 / 10 0 40 0
WAYNESBORO 84 64 81 65 / 0 0 60 0
CAMDEN 84 63 82 63 / 10 0 50 0
CRESTVIEW 82 62 82 61 / 10 10 30 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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