470
FXUS64 KMOB 061134
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY, BUT WILL LIKELY
STAY JUST BELOW THE RECORDS THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED INTO THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS AND CONTINUES
TO HUG THE COASTLINE AROUND OUR LOCAL BAYS, SOUNDS, AND WATERWAYS.
THE FOG WILL SLOWLY CREEP INLAND THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL FEATURE A RINSE AND REPEAT PATTERN IN THIS MOIST,
ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN WITH MUCH OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING FOG BY THE
TIME THE SUN RISES ON SATURDAY MORNING. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS
PAINTING A SIMILAR PICTURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WE ROLL INTO A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN AS RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE WEATHER LOCALLY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS ALREADY MENTIONED, THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO USHER MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LEADING TO CONCERNS
FOR FOG. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
PWATS OF 1.5+ INCHES STREAMING INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND 1.6-1.8
INCHES BY SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON FRIDAY IN
COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS WE ROLL
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PIVOTS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
REGION. A FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT WILL STALL OR WASH OUT BEFORE MAKING IT
TO OUR AREA. A LINE OF STORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND. MUCH OF THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
LINE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
OVERHEAD; HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE LINE
SLIDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WE
DON'T EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE A WASH OUT, BUT THERE WILL BE STORMS
IN THE AREA, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-65. THE ENVIRONMENT STILL DOES NOT
LOOK OVERLY ROBUST IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
RIDING ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION
BRIEFLY AS WE DRY OUT. THIS LOW EVENTUALLY PIVOTS TOWARD OUR REGION
TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN
THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IN THE GUIDANCE; HOWEVER,
THIS SYSTEM IS CATCHING OUR EYE IN TERMS OF A POTENTIAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. WHAT WE WILL BE WATCHING IS THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM - IF IT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS THE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE, WE MAY HAVE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT VERSUS
IF IT SWINGS THROUGH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BEACH FORECAST - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO THE HIGH RISK BEING EXTENDED
DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A HIGH-END MODERATE RISK LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS LOW CEILINGS AND FOG CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
AND CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS,
WITH POTENTIALLY VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY RETURNING TO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CEILINGS, HOWEVER, MAY LINGER THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE COAST. IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS QUICKLY
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT (POTENTIALLY DENSE) POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND OVER NW FLORIDA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE IN THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 66 82 65 / 40 10 30 30
PENSACOLA 76 65 77 65 / 20 0 10 10
DESTIN 74 63 74 63 / 20 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 84 61 85 61 / 40 10 20 30
WAYNESBORO 80 65 83 63 / 50 10 60 60
CAMDEN 82 63 83 63 / 50 10 40 50
CRESTVIEW 83 60 84 60 / 30 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ053>060-
261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>636-
650-655.
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