380
FXUS64 KMOB 071813
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1213 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS.
- SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES, ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS, DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
COASTLINE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FOG WILL SLOWLY CREEP INLAND
THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AND PRE-DAWN HOURS. EXPECT A SIMILAR
FOGGY PATTERN THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, ALTHOUGH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA MAY BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY DENSE FOG.
WE HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF RIDGING IMPACTING THE AREA BEFORE THE PATTERN
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN A LITTLE BIT. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IN
THIS PATTERN WILL USHER MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS OF
1.6-1.8 INCHES STREAMING INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WE ROLL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
RESOLUTION CAMS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. THE LINE SHOULD BEGIN
TO BREAK APART AS IT REACHES OUR AREA IN THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS THE STORMS
ENTER THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS TONIGHT IS GUSTY WINDS. SOME
OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE PUMPS THE BREAKS ON THE FORWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE STORMS AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY ONCE
THE STORMS APPROACH THE COASTLINE. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE STORMS
ONCE THEY REACH OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES DEFINITELY RAISES AN
EYEBROW WITH REGARD TO THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. HREF PMMS
(PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS) FOR SUNDAY ARE STILL SHOWING A
BULLSEYE OF QPF TOTALS AROUND 2-5 INCHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. FLOODING IS STARTING TO BECOME A CONCERN,
ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVEN COASTAL ALABAMA ON SUNDAY MORNING
GIVEN THESE RECENT TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE.
RIDING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO
AMPLIFY OVER OUR REGION BRIEFLY AS WE DRY OUT. THIS LOW OPENS UP
AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR LOCAL AREA LATER NEXT WEEK. WHAT
WE WILL BE WATCHING IS THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM - IF IT SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY AS THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE, WE MAY HAVE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT VERSUS IF IT SWINGS
THROUGH IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RIGHT NOW, GUIDANCE IS LOOKING
MORE LIKE A NIGHTTIME EVENT, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AGAIN IN THE
COMING DAYS.
BEACH FORECAST - HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RISK INCREASING TO
HIGH AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. 07/MB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MVFR TO VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. CIGS AND VISBYS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
TO IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING AS A LINE OF STORMS APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. VLIFR TO
LIFR CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS BEFORE CLEARING DURING THE
MID-MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTLINE FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL BAYS, SOUNDS, AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS OUT TO 20 NAUTICAL
MILES WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK AS WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 76 63 81 / 50 70 20 20
PENSACOLA 66 74 66 77 / 20 60 20 10
DESTIN 64 72 63 75 / 10 40 10 10
EVERGREEN 62 76 60 83 / 30 80 30 30
WAYNESBORO 63 74 63 82 / 70 90 20 50
CAMDEN 63 73 61 80 / 60 90 30 40
CRESTVIEW 61 76 61 82 / 20 60 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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