333
FXUS64 KMOB 110022
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
722 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WE REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE IMPACTFUL MIDWEEK SYSTEM WITH INCREASING
BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AS WE START OFF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH (WITH A CENTRALIZED
CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA) AXIS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND NORTHERN MEXICO AROUND NOON WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE EASTWARD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND BECOME MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED IN
THE PROCESS. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION, BUT AN ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS THROUGH OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
NIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY WARMING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH AN AMPLE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS
REMAINING WITH DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AND INCREASING
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY VALUES APPROACHING 500 TO 1000J/KG. MODEST
SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF AN EVENTUAL QLCS, AND WE EXPECT AROUND 200
M2/S2 OF SFC-3KM SRH TO BE PRESENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
ANY STORMS WITHIN THE QLCS OR THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY TO POSE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO.
CURRENTLY THE ANTICIPATED TIMING FOR DISCRETE STORMS WOULD BE
WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE QLCS IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO ENTER OUR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
ALABAMA COUNTIES BETWEEN 2 AM AND 4 AM, SPREADING EAST TO THE I-65
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 AM AND 5 AM, AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TO
THE EAST BETWEEN 8 AM AND 10 AM.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING INCREASING TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AND A COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE HAS BEEN
ISSUED. SURF HEIGHTS UP TO FOUR FEET ARE ALSO LIKELY DURING THE
PERIOD. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AT THIS
HOUR WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER INLAND. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS BEFORE LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS DENSE FOG SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT THE
TERMINALS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WEDNESDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PERIODS OF FOG REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEAR THE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 67 82 55 / 10 0 30 90
PENSACOLA 77 67 78 60 / 0 0 10 90
DESTIN 75 65 75 61 / 0 0 10 80
EVERGREEN 86 63 84 53 / 10 0 0 90
WAYNESBORO 84 67 83 49 / 20 0 30 90
CAMDEN 84 65 83 50 / 10 0 10 90
CRESTVIEW 83 63 82 57 / 0 0 10 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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