462
FXUS64 KMOB 260536
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE, IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS
COMING WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST FROM AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BORDER OF NEW AND OLD
MEXICO, DEFLECTING ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTH TO OVER
THE GULF THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LEVELS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST DECREASE THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK, FROM 1.1"-1.3"
CURRENTLY TO AROUND 0.9" BY FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURNS WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE SOUTHEAST).
BEHIND THE FRONT, A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO
LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION, WITH A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. IN THE
COMING WEEK, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES DIGGING SOUTH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS THE UPPER RIDGE EAST, TO OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. WITH LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND GOOD MOISTURE IN THE
LAYER, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
COMING FRONT WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR
THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP TO THE AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN
THE COMING WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME RISE/FALL/RISE
REGIME, RISING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, LOW TEMPERATURES SLOW RISE INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK BUT SEMI-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, KEEPING THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LOW. POST FROPA,
MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO
EASTERLY, BRINGING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BY SUNDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT,
POTENTIALLY EVOLVING INTO VLIFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING. CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL LAST INTO THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT BRING MODERATE TO STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE WEEKEND.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VERY DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. 20FT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY
RFWS. THE WILD CARD IS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, AND
MOVING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISSUES OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 86 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 81 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 62 76 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 56 87 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 60 84 53 71 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 58 84 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 86 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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