154
FXUS64 KMOB 280203
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
903 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A
COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVERHEAD SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY
DRY AIR, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS. MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BUMP TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 830 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED
ON RADAR ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT THESE BRIEF SHOWERS
WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE COASTLINE IN
THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS. EXPECT A QUICK UPTICK IN THE WINDS AS WE
APPROACH THE MIDNIGHT HOUR WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE , IF ANY, RAIN
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO THE LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INCREASES RAPIDLY TOMORROW WITH A HIGH
RISK EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS WITH GUSTS OF 25-29 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. /13
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL INCREASES TO A HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES. THE
ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE AREA WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES. FOR THESE
REASONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ON SATURDAY. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 56 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 80 60 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 76 58 73 56 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 87 51 72 47 / 0 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 84 50 70 50 / 0 10 0 0
CAMDEN 84 50 70 49 / 0 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 86 54 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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