686
FXUS64 KMOB 280519
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY
DRY AIR, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS. MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER BUMP TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. A FEW SHOWERS WERE NOTED ON RADAR EARLIER IN THE
EVENING AS THE FRONT PASSED OVER OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, BUT
RADAR REMAINS QUIET AT THIS HOUR. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30MPH
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH SLIDING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SHOULD
START TO RELAX AS WE ROLL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COMBINATION
OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR (MORE ON THIS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW). WEEKEND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CLOSE TO NORMAL.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
FOR BOTH THE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO REBOUND. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA AND DEEP ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING
THE STRENGTH AND ULTIMATE PATH OF THESE SHORTWAVES. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS NOT OVERLY BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND WHILE PROBABILISTIC DATA
SUPPORTS RAIN NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON, IT'S A LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT - DEFINITELY WON'T ERASE
THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
BEACH FORECAST - RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS QUICKLY INCREASES IN THE
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH A HIGH RISK ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILITIES INDICATE THE THE RISK WILL
LIKELY BE MODERATE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
HIGH-END MODERATE CONDITIONS. 07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR COASTAL COUNTIES
CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INCREASING TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISH AND TURN MORE EASTERLY GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS TO BRIEFLY RELAX AND TURN EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EASTERLY WINDS BECOME STRONG OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK. 07/MB
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL REMAINS HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES. THE
ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE AREA WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES. FOR THESE
REASONS, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ON SATURDAY. ANY FIRES
THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 56 74 59 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 75 59 70 62 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 74 56 70 61 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 73 48 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 70 50 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 70 49 71 54 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 77 50 74 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 3 PM CDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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