365
FXUS64 KMOB 290040
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
740 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF 00Z WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE WESTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SURGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND EXTEND ROUGHLY
FROM NEAR JACKSON, MS, SOUTH TO NEAR NEW ORLEANS, LA, JUST AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BEHIND THIS TROUGH
WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE HIGH FIRE DANGER THAT HAS EXISTED OVER
THE REGION TODAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
SOUTH TO THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS, FLOW AROUND
THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR ENHANCED MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 900-800MB LAYER WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS
LATE TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY.
OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING ALLOWS FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME BROKEN. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER ON SUNDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEAMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHIFTS EAST IN RESPONSE, TO OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, LEAVING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DECENT
GRADIENT AND INITIALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF. A COOL AND DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MODERATES AND
MOISTENS IN THE COMING WEEK WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. RAIN
RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE, MAINLY MID WEEK ON. THE
ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE (PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 1.6" BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA),
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN POSSIBLE
THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE CONTINUED TRAIN OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE CONUS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
THE NEAR SEASONAL UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
RESULTING FROM THE FRONT'S PASSAGE EARLIER TODAY RISE BACK INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S BY MONDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-10) AND REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE
AROUND 50 TO UPPER 50S TONIGHT RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
POST FRONTAL OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY SHIFTS TO SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY
LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES
AN UPPER MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY
INTO MID WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS AN TROUGH MOVES WEST. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 8-12 KTS.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERCAST DECKS
BETWEEN 3-4KFT THAT WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR
AT KMOB AND KBFM, BUT THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z AT KPNS AND KJKA. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE 10-12 KTS RANGE,
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, BUT REMAINS MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 55 75 59 79 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 59 70 63 75 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 56 70 62 74 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 49 71 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 50 75 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 50 70 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 51 73 56 81 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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