903
FXUS64 KMOB 290509
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1209 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND A WESTWARD MOVING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OVERCAST DECK BASED BETWEEN 3-5KFT. THIS WILL
OCCUR FIRST NEAR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER WHICH TIME THERE MAY BE A FEW TEMPORARY BREAKS DEVELOP
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL MIXING BEFORE LIKELY
FILLING BACK IN SUNDAY EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND HAVE UNDERCUT THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAKING
IT FEEL QUITE COOL OVERALL. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AREAWIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE FETCH
AND SWELL COMING TOWARDS THE COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD WITHIN RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH DAILY DIURNAL HEATING, BUILDING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST, POTENTIALLY FOCUSED ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING LOW LEVEL STRATUS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH A RETURN TO RATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BY MID WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH
BECOMES AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TILTS TOWARDS THE ENS
SOLUTION WHICH DEAMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION, DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH
INTENSITY THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR MUCH QPF WITH ALMOST
ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BELOW 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES, DESPITE MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(~70%) FOR GREATER THAN 0.10 INCHES. CURRENTLY POPS ARE CAPPED
AROUND 60% IN THE WEST TO 40% EAST, WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD CONSIDERING THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TRENDS.
RIDING BUILDS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID
WEEK TROUGH, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ADVERTISED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WARM WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S WHICH REMAINS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. /JLH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION LATER
THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY BETWEEN 03Z AND
05Z FROM EAST TO WEST AS AN TROUGH MOVES WEST. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 8-12 KTS.
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY, ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERCAST DECKS
BETWEEN 3-4KFT THAT WILL FIRST DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND SPREAD
INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN LOW END VFR
AT KMOB AND KBFM, BUT THERE ARE INCREASED PROBABILITIES IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS AFTER 13Z AT KPNS AND KJKA. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THE 10-12 KTS RANGE,
STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
EXERCISE CAUTION TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED, BUT REMAINS MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 56 75 59 79 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 60 70 63 75 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 60 70 62 74 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 54 71 54 82 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 51 75 55 81 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 51 70 55 79 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 57 73 56 81 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ631-632-650-
655-670-675.
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