983
FXUS64 KMOB 300045
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MVFR CEILINGS (CIGS) REMAIN IN PLACE OR REDEVELOP SHORTLY AT THE
TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND INLAND THROUGH THE EVENING.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MAY NEAR IFR
LEVELS JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
BUT LATEST HREF GRAND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED TO
BETWEEN 50%-60% DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IF TRENDS INCREASE
FURTHER, CIGS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER TO IFR LEVELS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CIGS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS.
BRISK EAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-12 KTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO BETWEEN
5-7 KTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE AND
AVERAGE AROUND 10-12 KTS ON MONDAY AS MIXING INCREASES WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. /JLH
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
LATEST ANALYSIS OF GOES NIGHT-TIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS STRATUS FILLING BACK IN ACROSS AREAS WHERE SOME CLEARING
OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIRMASS,
REPRESENTED BY MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 10-12 G/KG ADVECTING
NORTHWARD WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE 950-900MB LAYER ALONG
THE 295K THETA SURFACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERCAST STRATUS IN PLACE
WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOW OVERCAST
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY. WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION LAYER INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WHICH
SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING. EAST TO EVENTUALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MIDDLE 50S OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST SITUATION AND
TO INCREASE SKY COVER AREAWIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS MIXING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EAST AND
DEAMPLIFIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA SHIFTS EAST, LEAVING A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A DECENT GRADIENT, AND INITIALLY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. A COOL AND DRYER AIRMASS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO MODERATE AND MOISTEN IN THE COMING WEEK
WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME IS HELPING TO LIMIT INSOLATION TODAY OF
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COMING WEEK, MAINLY TUESDAY ON. THE ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE AND MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE (PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS RISE TO AROUND 1.6" BY WEDNESDAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA),
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AS THE CONTINUED TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY (INCLUDING A WEAKENING, THOUGH DECENT UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING THE END OF THE WEEK) MOVING OVER THE CONUS.
BY THE COMING WEEKEND, AN UPPER TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR
THE PLAINS (GUIDANCE VARIES). INCONSISTENCY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE TROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
ALONG WITH PLACEMENT IS LEADING TO INCONSISTENCY IN POPS FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND. CURRENT PACKAGE HAS A BLEND OF ENSEMBLES USED FOR
POPS. EVEN WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH, HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN ON
THE POSITIVE SIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
THE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL AROUND 70 TO MID 70S TODAY RISE
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY (MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTH OF I-
10) AND REMAIN THERE FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S TONIGHT RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT, AND REMAIN THERE FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST.
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO
EASTERLY EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING THE SWELL COMPONENT HIGH
IN THE RIP RISK EQUATION. TIDAL RANGE DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEK,
THOUGH, COUNTER BALANCING THE INCREASED SWELL. THE RIP RISK IS
EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A RESULT.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK, KEEPING CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED AT TIMES OVER AREA WATERS, ESPECIALLY LARGER BAYS AND OPEN
GULF WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 78 65 81 / 0 30 10 40
PENSACOLA 63 75 65 77 / 0 10 0 30
DESTIN 62 73 64 75 / 0 10 0 20
EVERGREEN 55 81 59 83 / 10 20 0 30
WAYNESBORO 58 80 62 82 / 0 30 0 50
CAMDEN 57 80 59 83 / 0 20 0 30
CRESTVIEW 56 81 59 83 / 0 20 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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