903
FXUS64 KMOB 301816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
116 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE
TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM OVER THE
GULF SHIFTS EAST TO OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC INTO TUESDAY AS A SERIES
OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST TO
MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE, WHICH STRETCHES WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GULF MOISTURE INLAND, WITH
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SEEING THE MOST CONTINUOUS INFLUX OF MOISTURE. THE FURTHER
EAST ONE GOES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
UPPER RIDGE DECREASES THE MOISTURE INFLUX, WITH THE RESULT BEING,
THAT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY ON, THE BEST CHANCE IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. GULF NEARSHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ENOUGH (UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70) THAT SEA FOG
IS NOT AN ISSUE.
A STRONG UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND THE PERIOD
OF BETTER RAIN CHANCES ENDING MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
10, UPPER 70S SOUTH TO THE COAST. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE
ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE (70-75). LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COMING FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOW TO MID 50S
BEHIND FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK, KEEPING THE SWELL COMPONENT HIGH IN THE RIP RISK EQUATION.
TIDAL RANGE BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, HELPING WITH THE
RIP RISK. THE RESULT IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DROPPING
INTO A MODERATE FOR A FEW DAYS, THEN RISING BACK TO HIGH FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR THOSE MVFR
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND INTO THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE BRIEFLY RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS
EVENING BEFORE MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN SETTLING IN MID TO LATE EVENING.
DURING THE PRE- DAWN HOURS, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
PARTICULARLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY SHOULD RETURN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, NEAR OR LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT, AND 5
TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS CONVECTION RETURNS TO
AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 64 80 64 81 / 10 60 20 50
PENSACOLA 65 77 66 78 / 0 40 10 30
DESTIN 64 75 65 75 / 0 30 10 30
EVERGREEN 59 82 59 84 / 0 40 10 30
WAYNESBORO 62 82 63 82 / 10 70 10 60
CAMDEN 59 82 60 83 / 10 50 10 40
CRESTVIEW 59 82 60 83 / 0 30 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page