062
FXUS64 KMOB 312334
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO HIGH FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEK
WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAIN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH OVER EAST COAST TO OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TO OFF THE EAST COAST/NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN AS A SERIES OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
EAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE SOUTHEAST TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE RIDGE, WHICH STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
GULF AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHICH THEN GETS DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY THE
CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE GULF
MOISTURE INLAND, WITH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST SEEING THE MOST CONTINUOUS INFLUX
OF MOISTURE. THE FURTHER EAST ONE GOES OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE DECREASES THE MOISTURE
INFLUX, WITH THE RESULT BEING, THAT AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID
WEEK ON, THE BEST CHANCE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND POINTS WEST. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS ALSO SHOWN
VARIATION IN PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHIFTING POPS FURTHER WEST
FOR THURSDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEDNESDAY'S WET DAY (AND
PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS IN THE 1.3-1.5" RANGE) BEING FOLLOWED BY A
DRY THURSDAY (WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS DROPPING TO AROUND 1") AS
A BAND OF DEEP LAYER DRIER AIR MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AS A RESULT.
THE A CONSISTENTLY GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING A STRONG UPPER LOW
PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING (A BIT QUICKER THAN YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE),
USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS AND THE PERIOD OF BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ENDING EARLY MONDAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LEANING NBM IS
KEEPING RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RECENT DAYS, AND NO
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AM HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH THIS ENDING TIME OF THE RAIN IN THE COMING WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-
10, UPPER 70S SOUTH TO THE COAST. SUNDAY IS A TRANSITIONAL DAY AS
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MONDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS ARE ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE
(67-72). LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE COMING FRONTAL PASSAGE, MID 40S TO AROUND 50 BEHIND FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK, KEEPING THE SWELL COMPONENT HIGH IN THE RIP RISK EQUATION.
TIDAL RANGE BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK, HELPING WITH THE
RIP RISK. THE RESULT IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DROPPING
INTO A HIGH MODERATE FOR A FEW DAYS, THEN RISING BACK TO HIGH FOR
THE COMING WEEKEND. THE CURRENT RP.S WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH THE NEAR HIGH RISK CONDITIONS, WITH A LIKELIHOOD OF IT
BEING EXTENDED LONGER.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHRA/FEW TSRA LIFTING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT TO SEE A DIURNAL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED TO NO
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS IN THE NEAR TERM. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
SUPPORTS A GENERAL LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH ALSO SUPPORTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT TO IFR/PERHAPS LIFR CATEGORIES DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AS WELL AS PATCHY BR LATE IN THE NIGHT. RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBY VARIES RANGING FROM MVFR TO PERHAPS INSTANCES OF IFR
CATEGORIES. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS CONVECTION RETURNS TO
AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 81 62 81 / 20 50 0 0
PENSACOLA 66 78 65 77 / 20 30 0 0
DESTIN 64 75 64 76 / 10 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 61 84 58 85 / 10 30 0 0
WAYNESBORO 64 83 60 84 / 10 60 0 10
CAMDEN 62 83 59 84 / 10 40 0 10
CRESTVIEW 61 83 58 84 / 10 30 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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