869
FXUS64 KMOB 160417
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SUPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO, IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND PRESCRIBED BURNS/WILDFIRES.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES RETREATS TO
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF PROGRESSES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE LARGE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO FAVOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
EACH NIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT UNTIL 14Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE LOOK TO INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
MEANWHILE BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, AND LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGERING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, THEN HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS GRADUALLY TREND
WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THEN TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THEN
MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND
TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A LOW RISK FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING,
GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO MVFR AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
REDUCTIONS TO LIFR AND LOCALLY VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR BOTH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY UNDER AREAS OF DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE PRE- DAWN INTO DAYBREAK HOURS. FOG SHOULD ERODE PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY MID MORNING. WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
/96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WHILE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
20-25%, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLY
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 65 80 65 80 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 65 77 65 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 56 87 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 61 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 57 85 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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