189
FXUS64 KMOB 160905
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
405 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SUPER FOG
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO, IS
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND PRESCRIBED BURNS/WILDFIRES.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN STATES RETREATS TO
OVER THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROF PROGRESSES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE LARGE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES OFF ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LOOK TO FAVOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT UNTIL 14Z THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LOOK TO INHIBIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL MEANWHILE BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON SATURDAY, AND LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNING TO MUCH OF
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S, THEN HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. DAYTIME HIGHS GRADUALLY TREND
WARMER THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LOWS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S, THEN TREND COOLER BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THEN
MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND
TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A LOW RISK FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CURRENTLY WILL DEGRADE OVERNIGHT TO MVFR AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AS FOG BEGINS TO DEVELOP. EXPECT REDUCTIONS TO
LIFR AND LOCALLY VLIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR BOTH CEILING AND
VISIBILITY UNDER AREAS OF DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PRE-
DAWN INTO DAYBREAK HOURS. FOG SHOULD ERODE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE, WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY MID MORNING. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. UNTIL THEN, A LIGHT ONSHORE
CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN SHIFTS WESTERLY BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. /22
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
WHILE AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. FOR
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO
20-25%, AND CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLY
REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 80 65 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 77 65 78 66 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 87 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 85 61 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 85 61 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 85 58 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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