280
FXUS64 KMOB 170530
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE, IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUPER FOG DEVELOPMENT, WHICH
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO, IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
AROUND PRESCRIBED BURNS/WILDFIRES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AN UPPER TROF OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES EXITS OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER TROF ADVANCES
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS NEXT UPPER TROF
AMPLIFIES WHILE CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND,
THEN MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN A CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT, HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS, WITH
THE HIGHER POPS OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY MORNING, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST TO
THE UPPER 80S WELL INLAND, THEN SATURDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND TEND TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 70 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE
COAST THEN TREND MUCH COOLER BY SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID
40S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THEN SLOWLY TREND WARMER GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY.
/29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK REDUCING
CEILING AND VISIBILITY TO OR BELOW IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS OUR
INLAND AREA. REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR ARE EXPECTED CLOSER
TO TO THE COAST, INCLUDING ALL TAF SITES. AFTER DAYBREAK, VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY RETURNS FAIRLY QUICKLY AS FOG ERODES ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS DURING THE DAY, RELAXING BELOW 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN SHIFTS
WESTERLY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 62 83 57 / 0 0 0 30
PENSACOLA 80 65 80 62 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 78 66 78 63 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 89 57 86 53 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 88 60 85 51 / 0 0 0 50
CAMDEN 88 60 84 51 / 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 88 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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