656
FXUS64 KMOB 190535
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1235 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT,
BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOW WITH NO IMPROVEMENT TO THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY...
THROUGH TUESDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
SHIFTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE. PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS HAVE RISEN
AROUND 1.6" AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX IN, THOUGH NO
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CREATED
RAINFALL FOLLOWS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EVEN SO, NO DRASTIC CHANGES TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO OFF THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD RISE FROM AROUND 70 TODAY TO THE 79
TO 84 DEGREE RANGE BY TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE MID
40S TO AROUND 50 SUNDAY NIGHT TO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE
PLAINS, THEN SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
RIDGE MID WEEK, BUT WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AS ONSHORE FLOW
RETURNS TUESDAY, POPS REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE BACK TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE SUNDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW
INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL BRING
BACK INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY
AND THEN NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
MOSTLY MVFR LEVELS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL BRIEF MODERATE SHOWER AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. LOCAL DROPS TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MODERATE SHOWERS. ANY CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT OUR AREA BY MID MORNING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
SHIFT TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DECREASE TO MODERATE ACROSS THE BAYS AND SOUNDS BY EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN STRONG OVER THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALSO, A FIRE
ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RED
FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
CONTINUE, WITH COORDINATION WITH RELEVANT FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY
WWAS NEEDED.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 49 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 53 79 57 78 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 54 77 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 43 80 45 83 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 44 78 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 45 77 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 81 47 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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