287
FXUS64 KMOB 210538
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
THROUGH THURSDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AN
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID
WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH BEST GULF MOISTURE INFLUX REMAINS WEST OF
THE FORECAST. WITH THAT, THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 85 EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S INLAND FROM THE COAST, MID
60S ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO PASS CLOSER AND CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST. ULTIMATELY, A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN THE COMING
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE. COMBINED WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINGING INCREASED
GULF MOISTURE INLAND, PRECIPITATION RETURNS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.
HIGHEST POPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, READ OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
OFFSHORE FLOW LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW INTO
THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL BRING BACK
INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP CURRENT RISK
TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TOMORROW. BB-8/22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. /96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY, JUST FOR FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. ALSO, A FIRE ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RED FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT
ALL. WILL LET DAY SHIFT CONTINUE WITH COORDINATION WITH RELEVANT
FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY WWAS NEEDED.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 58 80 58 81 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 61 78 62 78 / 0 10 0 10
DESTIN 63 78 63 77 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 52 84 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 54 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 55 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 53 84 53 84 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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