582
FXUS64 KMOB 061755
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
4 CORNERS REGION TAKES ON A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION WHILE
PROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH THURSDAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THIS SYSTEM IS NOW INDICATED TO NOT ABSORB A CUT-
OFF UPPER LOW DRIFTING ACROSS THE BAJA REGION WHICH IN TURN ALLOWS
FOR THE UPPER TROF TO BE A BIT QUICKER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN, A SURFACE LOW PASSES OFF
TO THE NORTH AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE APPROACHING
FRONT, CONVECTION ADVANCES INTO THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. ONE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS ISSUANCE IS
JUST HOW QUICKLY THE CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD THEN PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA MORE QUICKLY THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION,
THE CAMS ARE INDICATING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-5 INCHES (WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLY TO 8 INCHES) MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHICH PORTENDS A RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING. THIS ALL DEPENDS ON HOW THIS EVENT WILL PLAY OUT,
SO WILL NEED TO SEE IF CONTINUITY DEVELOPS FOR THIS POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINFALL. SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALONG AND WEST OF I-65, AND ALSO ALONG/SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BACK TO NEAR THE
COAST ON FRIDAY, BUT THERE'S UNCERTAINTY WITH WHETHER OR NOT THE
FRONT LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH OR RATHER LINGERS NEAR THE COAST AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MEANWHILE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND HAVE OPTED FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE DEVELOPS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND IS EXPECTED TO LIFT WELL OFF TO THE
NORTH, BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR SUNDAY THEN CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A
MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DUE TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DEEPER
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA STARTING AROUND MID-AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO LIFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS SAME REGION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 423 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE
A PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 72 81 63 / 50 50 80 10
PENSACOLA 82 73 82 66 / 20 30 70 10
DESTIN 80 72 81 66 / 10 30 70 10
EVERGREEN 86 68 80 57 / 30 80 80 0
WAYNESBORO 83 66 77 57 / 80 90 50 0
CAMDEN 84 67 76 56 / 60 100 70 0
CRESTVIEW 87 71 84 60 / 10 40 90 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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