163
FXUS64 KMOB 071853
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
153 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND
AND HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY, UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
EACH DAY, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG I-65 AT
NOONTIME MOVES ALONG THE COAST AS THIS ROUND OF ENERGY QUICKLY
MOVES OFF. ANOTHER ROUND FRIDAY BRINGS A ROUND OF ISENTROPICALLY
UPGLIDE CREATED, ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SURFACE BASED, BUT
THE GREAT MAJORITY ARE ADVERTISING LITTLE TO NO SBCAPES OVER LAND
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AT MUCAPES, ENOUGH
INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE ABOVE THE SURFACE FOR RUMBLERS TO MIX IN,
BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY OF THE PRIMARY THREE MODES OF SEVERE
STORMS. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
WATER ISSUES WITH POOR DRAINAGE LOCALITIES. WITH PRECIPITABLE H20
LEVELS IN THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE, THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
RAINERS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THINGS ARE GETTING MORE INTERESTING, WITH
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE NM/TX/MEXICO REGION BEGINS TO OPEN AND
MOVE EAST, AND MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. MOST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE CAMS AND MESOSCALE MODELS, IS
ADVERTISING SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INLAND
WITH A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBLITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS
REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA (ALL GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES REMAINING AROUND 1.8"+), WATER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HANG
AROUND. FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AN UPTICK IN
INSTABILITY, THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS BORDERLINE. UPPER SUPPORT
PRECEDES THE TIME OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY (THE NOW OPEN SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORN). NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING OF THE INGREDIENTS CHANGES.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE
RAIN WILL DROP HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR
FRIDAY. FROM THERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS, LOW TO MID 80S, FOR SUNDAY. LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES,
UPPER 50S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84, AROUND 60 TO AROUND 65 ALONG THE
COAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DECREASING
OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOW TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84, UPPER 60S SOUTH TO THE COAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LAST IN THE STRING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY IN RESPONSE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, A DRIER, BUT NOT APPRECIABLY
COOLER AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED SWELL
TO AREA BEACHES. COMBINED WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE, A HIGH END
MODERATE RISK, AT TIMES HIGH, IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AS THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST EXITS OFF TO THE EAST AROUND MID-
AFTERNOON AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS OFF THE COAST. LOCAL DROPS
TO VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS PASS OVER.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW BY
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE COAST. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY.
/16
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION MAY CAUSE LOCAL PONDING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALSO, AS THE RAINFALL WORKS ITS WAY INTO AREA
RIVERS, BOTH OVER AND UPSTREAM FROM THE FORECAST AREA, RIVERINE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 76 66 79 / 0 40 60 90
PENSACOLA 66 77 69 79 / 0 30 60 90
DESTIN 67 78 69 78 / 0 20 50 90
EVERGREEN 57 75 59 78 / 0 20 70 90
WAYNESBORO 57 73 61 77 / 0 30 70 80
CAMDEN 56 73 59 76 / 0 10 70 80
CRESTVIEW 61 78 63 80 / 0 20 50 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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