275
FXUS64 KMOB 080444
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1144 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO SHEARS OUT ACROSS
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AIDS IN SENDING A CONTINUING
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF MEANWHILE SPANS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THEN AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN HAVE GONE WITH
VERY HIGH POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY, HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AS IT'S
POSSIBLE SOME VESTIGES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWING THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE 800
MB, THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS ARE INDICATED.
WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THE CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED
ON SATURDAY, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON WHILE FURTHER INLAND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MUCH
LOWER. DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT, THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
REPEATEDLY TRAVERSE THE SAME AREAS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT WITH AN MVFR
CEILING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHICH OCCASIONALLY
IMPROVES TO VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
ON FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
AT 5-10 KNOTS OVER INTERIOR AREAS ON FRIDAY, WHILE CLOSER TO THE
COAST A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW NEAR 10 KNOTS DEVELOPS THROUGH THE
DAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW BY
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND STALLS ALONG THE COAST. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
QUICKLY SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
PASSING SYSTEM BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 75 67 80 / 0 80 70 90
PENSACOLA 66 77 70 80 / 0 70 60 90
DESTIN 67 78 70 79 / 10 70 40 80
EVERGREEN 57 74 60 79 / 0 70 80 90
WAYNESBORO 57 72 62 78 / 0 70 60 70
CAMDEN 56 72 60 77 / 0 30 70 80
CRESTVIEW 61 78 64 81 / 0 70 70 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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