625
FXUS64 KMOB 081804
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO BEGIN DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE ALREADY
SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS LOUISIANA THAT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES BETWEEN 11AM AND 2PM BEFORE PROGRESSING INTO
OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AS A WARM
FRONT REMAINS WELL SOUTH OFFSHORE, HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF
1,000J/KG OF MUCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KNOTS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED SUPERCELLS ROOTED AROUND THE 1KM AGL LAYER WITH
A LARGE TO HAIL THREAT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
OVER TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER IN THE MOST ROBUST SUPERCELLS.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS, WITH A FOCUS MORE TOWARDS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. THIS MAY PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN
OUR URBAN AREAS THAT ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR STORMS TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH THE ATMOSPHERE RESETING FOR THE
NEXT ROUND LATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE WARM FRONT
OFFSHORE TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHWARD ONSHORE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ENTHUSED ABOUT AN MCS TRACKING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH AMPLE CAPE AND SHEAR ALLOWING FOR ROBUST
UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MCS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHEN
DOES THIS COMPLEX ENTER BETTER INSTABILITY AND INTERACT WITH THE
WARM FRONT. INITIALLY STORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THEY
MOVE INTO OUR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA COUNTIES, BUT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND SURFACE
HEATING BEGINS BY DAYBREAK WE WILL LIKELY SEE STORMS BECOME
SURFACE BASED AND SHIFT FROM A LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND THREAT
TO AN ALL HAZARDS THREAT SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TO THE
COAST. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING, AND AT
THE MOMENT THERE IS NO ANTICIPATION FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER. MODELS HAVE
OVERALL STRUGGLED WITH DEPICTING A CONSISTENT EVOLUTION OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES WITH EACH ROUND OF STORMS, BUT THERE IS A
BETTER CONSENSUS TOWARDS THIS MORNING COMPLEX WITH RECENT
ITERATIONS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SUBSEQUENT STORMS SUNDAY ARE
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS CAM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE ON THE
EVOLUTION OF EVERYTHING BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ADEQUATE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY TO STILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW END
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NEAR OR OVER 7.5C/KM OVERSPREAD THE AREA CREATING A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS IN ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP. PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS SUNDAY PRESENTLY LOOK TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE THE MAIN COLD FRONT PROGRESSING INTO THE AREA
WITH ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, THE
SHEAR AND CAPE ENVIRONMENT ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. THERE REMAINS VARIANCE ON HOW QUICKLY EVERYTHING MOVES
THROUGH, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW TIMING APPEARS TO BE EARLY MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AND WITH THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. HREF
ENSEMBLE LPMM INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WITH A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
UP TO 4 INCHES OR GREATER ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS, WHICH COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC PARTICULARLY FOR OUR URBAN AREAS. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER THIS
PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON LOCATION AND TOTALS
IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. DESPITE THIS, THE FOCUS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ON URBAN AREAS THAT SEE TRAINING STORMS AND ANY INTERIOR AREAS
THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT TRAINING OF VERY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY.
THE FORECAST DRIES OUT TUESDAY INTO LATE WEEK WITH NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THAT PERIOD. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS (CIGS) SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE TEMPORARY IFR REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES (VSBYS) WITH ANY STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AND CONTINUE
TO THE NORTH OF A STATIONARY 850MB WARM FRONT EXTENDING JUST
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE SOUTH AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE
MAIN TAF SITES, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SHOULD BE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BEGINNING AROUND 20-21Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS
MAINTAINED WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR AFTER RAIN AND STORMS DIMINISH
BY MID EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT POSITIONING OF WHERE THESE
STORMS INITIATED AND IMPACT IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. WE
WILL REFINE THESE DETAILS WITH THE EVENING TAF FORECAST RELEASE.
/JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 80 68 83 / 70 90 50 60
PENSACOLA 70 80 70 81 / 60 90 60 70
DESTIN 70 79 70 80 / 40 80 60 70
EVERGREEN 60 79 63 83 / 80 90 50 60
WAYNESBORO 62 78 64 83 / 60 70 50 60
CAMDEN 60 77 62 81 / 70 80 40 50
CRESTVIEW 64 81 65 84 / 70 90 60 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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