520
FXUS64 KMOB 090554
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS TO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MEANWHILE, AIDED BY A
REMNANT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WHICH SHEARS OUT
DOWNSTREAM. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN, ALTHOUGH
TIMING THESE HAS PROVED DIFFICULT DUE TO THE INHERENTLY NOISY
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THAT SAID, THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS, WITH SOME CONVECTION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE ELEVATED, AND IT'S
NOT CLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED ON
SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER APPEAR TO RANGE FROM
6.5 TO POSSIBLY 7.5 C/KM, AND IF THESE HIGHER END LAPSE RATES ARE
REALIZED AND SHEAR PROFILES PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE, THEN THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN, BUT WITH THE CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE OPTED
FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. SHEAR VALUES LOOK LOW ON SUNDAY AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TYPICALLY RANGE FROM 20-30 KNOTS, BUT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS POINT, THOUGH STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR VALUES ARE REALIZED. THE BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
HAVE A MODERATE RISK. A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR ALL BEACH AREAS
FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR OR IFR AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN
CHANCES START TO LOWER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD DRY OUT
BY THE EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
MORNING'S STORMS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 80 67 83 68 / 80 40 80 60
PENSACOLA 80 70 81 70 / 80 40 60 60
DESTIN 79 70 80 70 / 80 50 60 60
EVERGREEN 79 63 83 64 / 90 50 70 60
WAYNESBORO 78 64 83 65 / 80 40 60 70
CAMDEN 77 63 82 64 / 80 40 60 60
CRESTVIEW 81 65 84 66 / 90 50 80 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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