947
FXUS64 KMOB 091820
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING WITH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION REMAINING OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY ANTICIPATE THIS TO
CONTINUE SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
COMING TO AN END BY MID AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THIS INTO THIS EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS
CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED.
THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK HEATING. SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER MCS AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY WEAKER AND
WE WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO HAVE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THIS, SO CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS TO DECAY PRIOR TO
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA AND AT BEST LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ATTENTION TURNS ONCE
AGAIN TOWARDS THE NEXT MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SEEMS DIVERGENT ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THINGS AS THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION OWING TO THE PRECEDING DAYS
OF STRONG COLD POOLS SHIFTING OFFSHORE SHUNTING THE WARM FRONT
WELL SOUTH OF THE LOCAL MARINE WATERS. IF THIS WARM FRONT CAN
MAKE IT BACK ONSHORE, WE COULD SEE SOME SEVERE THREAT MATERIALIZE
AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. THIS WILL REMAIN SOMETHING TO
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS CAM GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
STRUGGLED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF EACH SHORTWAVE
THESE PAST COUPLE DAYS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS.
WHAT WE SEE THESE NEXT 48 HOURS IS PROBABLY GOING TO BE IT FOR
ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ONCE WE GET
PAST MONDAY, THE CHANCES FOR RAIN DROP PRECIPITOUSLY AND WE RETURN
TO A DRY WEATHER FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS IN THE 80'S
AND LOWS GENERALLY STAY IN THE UPPER 50'S AND LOWER 60'S. THE RIP
CURRENT RISK REMAINS A MODERATE FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, WITH A LOW
RISK EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL
SHOWERS END. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR
CEILINGS MOVE IN AFTER THE RAIN ENDS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
UPSTREAM IN MISSISSIPPI. LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, IFR
CEILINGS SPREAD OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY INLAND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY AT 8- 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
AND DECREASE TO 3-6 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. /97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN BE ERRATIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE CONVECTION LINGERS BEFORE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES GOING INTO SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ON MONDAY PROCEEDING A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH GOING
INTO MIDWEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 84 67 82 / 40 40 40 70
PENSACOLA 69 81 70 81 / 50 30 50 80
DESTIN 70 81 70 80 / 40 40 40 70
EVERGREEN 62 84 63 81 / 30 60 50 60
WAYNESBORO 64 83 64 80 / 20 40 50 50
CAMDEN 62 82 63 79 / 20 40 50 50
CRESTVIEW 64 85 65 83 / 40 50 40 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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