856
FXUS64 KMOB 101142
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE ENTIRE
LOCAL AREA. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 139 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATION SITES SHOW THAT FOG IS QUICKLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP.
VISIBILITIES AT SEVERAL SITES HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN A MILE,
WITH A FEW SITES ALREADY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE LOCAL AREA, WHICH WILL
BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. ALSO UPDATED NEAR-TERM FORECAST GRIDS TO
EXPAND FOG MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
OUR RATHER SOGGY WEEK WILL BE COMING TO A CLOSE AS OUR FINAL UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY MONDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT
PATTERN FLIP OCCURS. BROAD WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BIGGEST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AS GUIDANCE HAS HONED IN ON OUR
INTERIOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-10. CURRENTLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA BUT ONCE THESE MOVE EAST OF OUR AREA AND
SOME BREAKS OCCUR THEN PATCHY FOG SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP. SOME
LOCATIONS MAY BE DENSE BUT AS OF NOW CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG IS TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY PRODUCTS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST; HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL ADVECTION
BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEMS AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL IT'LL JUST BE A WARM AND MUGGY
DAY TOMORROW AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S.
THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. RATHER STOUT UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG A BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THERE IS
CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS RATHER
PALTRY BUT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS COULD SUPPORT
SOME ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL OR TWO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP MOIST PROFILES GENERALLY TEND TO NOT BE
SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL; HOWEVER, WEAK STORM RELATIVE INFLOWS,
DECENT INSTABILITY WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE COULD SUPPORT SEVERE
HAIL IN ANY TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES THAT DO DEVELOP.
DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF ANY BOWING
SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS DO DEVELOP AND ARE ABLE TO MIX DOWN STRONGER MID-
LEVEL WINDS. ON-TOP OF THE LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. PWATS WILL BE IN THE
1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, SOME HEAVIER
RAINFALL RATES COULD BE POSSIBLE LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS. LUCKILY EVEN WITH ALL THE RAIN WE HAVE HAD WE ARE STILL IN
A RATHER SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT WHICH IS LIKELY KEEPING US FROM MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST USHERING
IN A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER PATTERN BY MIDWEEK. UPPER RIDGING WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL US LEADING TO DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN OUT AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH TIME
LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN
THE 90S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF THE UPCOMING SUMMER
WILL BE UPON US BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN SPOTS. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOG MAY ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS TURN WESTERLY THEN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG. WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
LIGHT EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AND TURNS
WESTERLY BY MID-WEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 66 84 63 / 20 20 60 40
PENSACOLA 81 69 82 66 / 20 20 50 50
DESTIN 80 70 81 67 / 20 10 50 50
EVERGREEN 85 63 84 58 / 20 20 60 30
WAYNESBORO 84 64 81 57 / 20 30 60 20
CAMDEN 83 63 81 57 / 10 30 60 20
CRESTVIEW 86 64 86 62 / 30 10 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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