844
FXUS64 KMOB 120046
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
746 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE.
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. LUCKILY THINGS HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS JUST A GENTLE RAIN WITH THE OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST BUT OVERALL THE THREAT FOR ANY ISSUES IS
LOW. BB-8
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
11.17Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE/ENHANCED AREA OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG A PIECE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL ENERGY STARTING TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS ALIGNED FROM THE MOUTH OF
THE MS TO AROUND 320 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEAST LA COAST.
THIS FEATURE IS EJECTING EAST OUT OF THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE MID-LEVEL
TROF THAT IS MOVING EAST OVER SOUTHEAST TX. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONT WAS ORIENTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE
SOUTHWEST LA/UPPER TX COAST WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
HAS FORMED. AS THE UPPER IMPULSE CONTINUES SLIDING EASTWARD TODAY,
THE FRONT ALSO EASES IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR INCREASED ASCENT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS AN EAST TO WEST BELT OF
ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY, CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN SBCAPES NOW
INCREASED TO 1500-2000 J/KG IS ALIGNED OVER THE HEART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGINNING TO BREAKOUT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WE ANTICIPATE
COVERAGE WILL ONLY INCREASE FURTHER AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND CARRYOVER INTO THIS EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE LATEST 11.12Z HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
OF FUTURE 40+ DBZ RADAR ECHOES FILLING IN AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM 11.20 TO 12.00Z AND ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. LATE NIGHT-TIME ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR WITH COVERAGE LOWERING WEST OF THERE. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK, A FEW STORMS COULD STILL
OVERACHIEVE AND BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STORMS
THAT ORGANIZE AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL AND A MARGINAL RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/PERHAPS A FEW STORMS WILL
REFORM ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR TUESDAY WITH THE WEST END OF THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL TROF YET TO COMPLETELY PASS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY IS MINIMAL TO NONE. A 20% POP LINGERS IN
THE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
US BRINGS UNEVENTFUL WEATHER THURSDAY, CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE 80'S THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60'S THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE COOLEST NIGHT THIS PERIOD IS ADVERTISED FOR
THU NIGHT WHERE LOWS DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S EAST OF A LINE
FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO CRESTVIEW FL BEFORE MODERATING AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. /10
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AND POTENTIALLY IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SEABREEZE NORTH OF I-10. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM WHILE EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE TO BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY, WITH ANY
REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AT 4-8 KNOTS BY MORNING, AWAY FROM CONVECTION. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MORE EASTERLY TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FLOW BY MID-WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING BACK
TO ONSHORE FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN LIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. SEAS GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS.
/10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 84 64 86 / 70 40 10 10
PENSACOLA 68 82 68 83 / 70 30 10 10
DESTIN 69 81 68 81 / 60 40 10 10
EVERGREEN 62 85 61 86 / 30 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 61 83 60 85 / 20 0 10 0
CAMDEN 61 82 60 84 / 10 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 64 86 62 87 / 70 40 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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