968
FXUS64 KMOB 120454
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
OUR LAST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ONGOING. SOME PATCHES OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH RAIN
RATES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING LEADING TO SOME MINOR PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ALL OF THIS RAIN IS A RESULT OF A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. BY TUESDAY MORNING, BOTH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR THE RAIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
LEADING TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.
THE MAIN TALKING POINT BY THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. LUCKILY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S KEEPING IT FROM FEELING DOWNRIGHT AWFUL.
NONETHELESS, OUR FIST LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER IS ON THE WAY AND
GIVEN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER DRY AND TOASTY PERIOD. BB-8
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
AND POTENTIALLY IFR VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG A SEABREEZE NORTH OF I-10. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2AM WHILE EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE TO BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS RAIN WILL
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY MORNING ON TUESDAY, WITH ANY
REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AT 4-8 KNOTS BY MORNING, AWAY FROM CONVECTION. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MORE MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FLOW BY MID- WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO ONSHORE FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN LIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 66 81 64 / 50 80 50 10
PENSACOLA 84 68 79 67 / 40 80 60 10
DESTIN 83 69 79 67 / 20 80 70 20
EVERGREEN 85 62 81 60 / 20 40 40 10
WAYNESBORO 82 61 83 61 / 30 20 0 0
CAMDEN 81 61 81 61 / 20 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 88 64 80 61 / 40 80 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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