391
FXUS64 KMOB 120531
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
OUR LAST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ONGOING. SOME PATCHES OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH RAIN
RATES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING LEADING TO SOME MINOR PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ALL OF THIS RAIN IS A RESULT OF A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. BY TUESDAY MORNING, BOTH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR THE RAIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
LEADING TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.
THE MAIN TALKING POINT BY THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. LUCKILY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S KEEPING IT FROM FEELING DOWNRIGHT AWFUL.
NONETHELESS, OUR FIST LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER IS ON THE WAY AND
GIVEN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER DRY AND TOASTY PERIOD. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CURRENTLY SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. THIS RAIN IS HELPING TO
REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO
DECREASE BY THE LATE MORNING, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MORE MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FLOW BY MID- WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO ONSHORE FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN LIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 64 86 63 / 40 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 82 68 83 67 / 30 10 10 0
DESTIN 81 68 81 68 / 40 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 85 61 86 60 / 10 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 83 60 85 60 / 0 10 0 0
CAMDEN 82 60 84 59 / 10 0 10 0
CRESTVIEW 86 62 87 61 / 40 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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