583
FXUS64 KMOB 121457
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
957 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 940 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
12.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS ALIGNED NEAR THE
I-65 CORRIDOR WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
AT THE SURFACE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COAST. THE FRONT HAS MADE PASSAGE AND IS DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL GULF. THE BULK OF THE RADAR ACTIVITY IS EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL LOW AND WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE EASTERN
BORDER LAND AND FLORIDA MARINE ZONES THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT-RANGE
ENSEMBLES THAT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERHAPS A FEW
STORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE COURSE
OF THE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. AT
THIS TIME, WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER SUPPORT
FROM PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF, THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE ARE MARGINAL RISK IS OUTLOOKED. /10
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR OUR INTERIOR SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THIS RAIN SHIELD APPEARS TO BE SPREADING FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
OUR LAST CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ONGOING. SOME PATCHES OF LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL WITH RAIN
RATES IN THE 2 TO 2.5 INCH PER HOUR RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE MORNING LEADING TO SOME MINOR PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
ALL OF THIS RAIN IS A RESULT OF A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. BY TUESDAY MORNING, BOTH THE
SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING
FOR THE RAIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS
SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BY
WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL US
LEADING TO INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST.
THE MAIN TALKING POINT BY THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF THE PERIOD IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S BEFORE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY THE
WEEKEND. LUCKILY MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW 60S KEEPING IT FROM FEELING DOWNRIGHT AWFUL.
NONETHELESS, OUR FIST LITTLE TASTE OF SUMMER IS ON THE WAY AND
GIVEN THE LONG RANGE PATTERN THIS WILL ONLY BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER DRY AND TOASTY PERIOD. BB-8
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES AT ISSUANCE TIME, MAINLY
OVER AREAS EAST OF I-65. THIS RAIN IS HELPING TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO MVFR OR IFR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH TO
THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING, AND MOST AREAS
SHOULD BRIEFLY RETURN BACK TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR ONCE AGAIN BY THE EVENING HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
A COLD FRONT MAKES PASSAGE TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW BECOMING MORE MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FLOW BY MID- WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK TO ONSHORE FRIDAY, THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN LIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 64 86 61 / 40 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 79 67 85 65 / 60 10 0 0
DESTIN 79 67 83 66 / 70 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 81 60 85 58 / 40 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 83 61 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 81 61 83 57 / 10 10 10 0
CRESTVIEW 80 61 86 59 / 70 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page