055
FXUS64 KMOB 122018
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
318 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF MID TO LATE
WEEK TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST
OF I-65. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. THE BULK OF
THE RADAR ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS FROM THE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/PERHAPS A FEW STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE BACK EDGE OF
DEPARTING LOW/MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AND SQUEEZES OUT ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER SUPPORT
FROM PASSAGE OF UPPER TROF, THE MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO BE POSITIONED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE ARE MARGINAL RISK IS OUTLOOKED.
WITH A SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ADVANCE EAST OF
THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY, A RAIN-FREE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80'S THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
NOT BE TOO FAR FROM MID MAY NORMALS. HIGHS WARM TO A RANGE OF 85
TO 90 MOST AREAS BY EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS 57 TO 62
INTERIOR AND LOWER TO MID 60'S COAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOLEST LOWS THIS PERIOD IS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NUMBERS LOWERING
TO LOWER TO MID 50'S EAST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO MS TO
CRESTVIEW FL AND SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MAY
THESE AREAS. THE COOLNESS WILL BE VERY BRIEF. THEREAFTER, LOWS TO
DRAMATICALLY MODERATE TO WELL INTO THE 60'S INTERIOR TO LOWER
70'S COAST AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY DEPARTING EASTERN AREAS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON. MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS WEST OF I-65. MVFR
AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT EAST OF I-65, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS TO THE WEST. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
98/29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
DUE TO A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH TONIGHT, THE FETCH SUPPORTS SEAS RANGING 2 TO 4 FEET
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING, WINDS DECREASE AND SEAS
SUBSIDE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 85 63 85 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 64 82 66 84 / 10 0 0 0
DESTIN 65 82 67 84 / 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 57 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 61 84 59 82 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 58 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 59 84 59 85 / 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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