294
FXUS64 KMOB 011632
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT RISK CONCERNS: HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
TRANSITING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
TROUGH, AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER, COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE THE AREA
MID TO LATE WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING SIGNIFICANTLY MID
TO LATE WEEK. SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY HANG ON TO SOME SMALL RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT IS FULLY THROUGH THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S TODAY AND
TOMORROW BECOME NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE 80'S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN
TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BEST CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR, WEAKER TOWARDS THE COAST, COUPLED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND 4,000 TO 5,000J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'LL
LIKELY BE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS, WITH THE FIRST BEING ON AN EVENTUAL
MCS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THAT SAGS
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, LIKELY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OWING TO THE "STRONGER" SHEAR WITH
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FURTHER SOUTH NEARER
THE COAST, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF ON
WHATEVER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND. SHEAR
IS MUCH WEAKER DOWN SOUTH, AND THE EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR MORE
PULSE TYPE STORMS THAN ANYTHING. THESE STILL COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR SMALL HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY MICROBURSTS. ANY
STORMS TODAY WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS OR AREAS THAT WERE
HARD HIT THE PAST WEEK. WHILE SOME RISK FOR STRONG STORMS PERSISTS
TUESDAY, WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK
WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ONCE AGAIN,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET BY
MID WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 92 69 81 / 40 60 60 20
PENSACOLA 76 90 70 82 / 30 50 70 20
DESTIN 76 88 70 82 / 20 50 80 10
EVERGREEN 72 90 65 81 / 40 60 40 10
WAYNESBORO 72 90 67 81 / 20 60 20 10
CAMDEN 71 86 64 79 / 20 50 20 10
CRESTVIEW 72 93 65 81 / 30 60 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page