812
FXUS64 KMOB 220638
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
138 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A SERIES OF STORM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY AS OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE WITHIN THIS NEWLY-ESTABLISHED FLOW PATTERN.
THE FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY, THIS
SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED OVER OKLAHOMA AND IS HELPING TO SPARK A
DEVELOPING MCS. THIS MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TODAY, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
COMPLEXES (WITH REGARDS TO THEIR STRENGTH AND TIMING). THAT BEING
SAID, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING
UPON ARRIVAL. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE (CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN SPOTS), SHEAR VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS, SUGGESTING THAT THE COMPLEX
SHOULD BE OUTFLOW-DOMINANT BY TIME IT ARRIVES. AND WITH SUBSIDENT
EFFECTS FROM THE NEARBY RIDGE ALONG RISING HEIGHTS, AM NOT
ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM REDEVELOPMENT/MCS
MAINTENANCE. IF HOWEVER, THE MCS IS ABLE TO HOLD ON LONG ENOUGH TO
ENTER THE AREA, THEN I CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40-60
MPH OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, ASSOCIATED WITH ANY LINGERING
STORMS, OR EVEN JUST THE OUTFLOW ITSELF. THIS STRONG WIND THREAT
QUICKLY DROPS OFF THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TONIGHT'S
MCS MAY SLOW DOWN AND POTENTIALLY STALL OVER OUR AREA. AS IT DOES
SO, IT MAY TRY TO REORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS, THIS WILL HELP TO DO TWO THINGS: 1) IT
WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND 2) ANY ADDITIONAL MCSS OR STORM COMPLEXES MAY
RIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DUE TO THIS, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IF STORM COMPLEXES ARE
ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH, WE COULD SEE AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT).
LOCALIZED FLOODING STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE SATURATED
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
BY FRIDAY, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
THIS WOULD HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
WITH LOW TO MID 90S RETURNING FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100-
105. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, FINALLY DROPPING TO A LOW RISK BY LATE
WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR OUR
INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA. OTHERWISE, CIG CONDITIONS ARE
BORDERING ON VFR/MVFR CLOSER TO THE COAST IN ALABAMA AND FLORIDA FOR
OUR SITES. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA BY MORNING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY VERY ISOLATED IN NATURE. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HOLDING TOGETHER AND BEGIN IMPACTING
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS STAY GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING
BY MID MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS.
SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 77 93 75 / 20 0 50 10
PENSACOLA 91 80 92 78 / 20 10 50 10
DESTIN 89 80 90 78 / 20 10 50 10
EVERGREEN 91 74 90 72 / 20 20 40 10
WAYNESBORO 92 75 90 73 / 10 30 40 20
CAMDEN 89 74 86 71 / 20 50 40 20
CRESTVIEW 92 76 93 74 / 20 10 50 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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