651
FXUS64 KMOB 121742
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 107
DEGREES.
- COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, IS
POSSIBLE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WE HAVE SEEN CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
THE COAST LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAND-BREEZE, AND WE EXPECT THE SAME START FOR
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TO BECOME NUMEROUS INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 90-94
DEGREES, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 74
TO 78 DEGREES, MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) SHOULD
RANGE FROM 100-107 DEGREES. AS DAYTIME HEATING LEADS TO
DECREASING STABILITY THIS AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS MLCAPE
VALUES ESCALATE TO AROUND 2,000 TO 2,500J/KG. AS A RESULT, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOKED FOR OUR AREA NORTH OF I-10.
THE HIGHLY POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY BY NOON ON MONDAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE NEAR TERM OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH TODAY IS
NOW EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER SOUTH THEN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED,
REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT HAS RESULTED IN
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ON TUESDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE
WILL THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
MIDWEEK UNDER A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA
REFLECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS UNDER THE UPPER LOW WILL ALSO
MIGRATE SOUTHWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING WESTWARD.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL NOT ENTER OUR
FORECAST AREA, BUT WILL WILL SEE A SHIFT TO WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR NORTH AN A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AN AVERAGE AROUND 2.3" TODAY AND
MONDAY, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY, AND
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ON TUESDAY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN AS WE
ANTICIPATE A GENERAL 1 TO 3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENT, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 4". THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
BUT DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES FOR MONDAY. WE WILL RESUME OUR TYPICAL MID-JULY
WEATHER THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WITH WIDESPREAD MORNING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
TERMINALS OF JKA/PNS HAVING DISSIPATED, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE OF
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA FOR THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
BEING ISOLATED. COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA LOOK TO PRIMARILY INCREASE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT RESIDES. ALBEIT BRIEF, LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR
CATEGORIES/RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY POSSIBLY TO IFR/AS LOW AS LIFR
WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY +TSRA. HAZARDS TO APPROACHES AND DEPARTURES
IN AN NEAR CONVECTION WILL BE BRIEF STRONG AND VARIABLE WIND
GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS LIGHT. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, BECOMING A
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW MONDAY. A BRIEF WINDOW OF MODERATE TO
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW MAY EXIST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET IN HEIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK, POTENTIALLY
REACHING 4 FEET LATE MONDAY. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS EACH MORNING NEAR DAYBREAK OVER THE MARINE WATERS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 85 71 87 / 40 80 40 60
PENSACOLA 77 86 74 88 / 50 70 50 60
DESTIN 78 87 76 87 / 60 70 70 60
EVERGREEN 72 85 69 86 / 60 80 40 80
WAYNESBORO 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 40 70
CAMDEN 72 85 69 84 / 60 80 70 80
CRESTVIEW 73 86 70 88 / 50 80 50 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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