845
FXUS64 KMOB 161719
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1219 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
- A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST HEAT INDICES
IN THE 100'S THIS WEEKEND TO UPPER 100'S TO LOW 110'S NEXT
WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, REVEALING A GROWING CONCERN
FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWIRLING THROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION, WITH THIS MOISTURE
MOVING WEST OVER THE REGION (AND TO VARYING EXTENTS, THE FORECAST
AREA) TO VARYING EXTENTS. WITH THAT, A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA TO VARYING EXTENTS IS INDICATED
IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE GUIDANCE BY SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS
CONTINUE TO BE OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA, AWAY FROM THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW/TROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OR INLAND FROM THE COAST TO AROUND 90 OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG THE COAST. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT INDICES
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM, TO THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE BY SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY INTO THE COMING WEEK...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST FROM OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING THE
UPPER RIDGE/LOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH OVER THE FORECAST, AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE, HIGH TEMPERATURE RISE TO
NEAR 100 OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, MID TO UPPER
90S EAST. HEAT INDICES RISE TO ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS (>108) BY
MONDAY, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH/WARNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LIMIT ONSHORE SWELL.
COMBINED WITH A DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE.
SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY MAINLY BEARING 260-290 FOR
WESTERN AREAS (KMOB), 300-330 FOR EASTERN TERMINALS (KPNS/KJKA),
WITH THE BRIEF EXCEPTION OF KBFM WHERE 0-1KM WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A WEAK SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST WITH SFC WINDS
BEARING 150-170 THEN SWITCHING LATER ON. WILL MONITOR POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY INLAND/NORTH OF AREA
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON EVENING, BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. FOR NOW,
CHANCES/CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS BUT WILL
MONITOR. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE, GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 97 76 95 / 10 0 10 20
PENSACOLA 78 97 79 95 / 10 10 20 40
DESTIN 80 95 80 93 / 10 20 40 60
EVERGREEN 72 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 40
WAYNESBORO 73 95 74 95 / 10 0 0 20
CAMDEN 73 90 74 90 / 10 10 10 30
CRESTVIEW 74 95 74 93 / 10 20 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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